Candidate Survey 2021 Romanian parties profiles

Is there a realignment underway in Romanian politics?

After decades of largely non-ideological competition focused on corruption and other symbolic issues, the emergence of new parties could reshape Romanian politics, especially on the right.

For the first time since 1989 all established mainstream parties are governing together, while the opposition is formed of new radical right and liberal challengers. The absence of electoral campaigns until late 2024, the large amounts of funds available through the Recovery and Resilience Fund and the comfortable parliamentary majority enjoyed by the coalition offer the ruling parties a unique chance for reform and modernization but also for consolidating their support. But which of the new challengers would capitalize on a likely failure could have significant consequences for the fragile Romanian democracy.

The mainstream Romanian political parties are widely seen as rent-seeking electoral vehicles, lacking strong ideological commitments, competing mostly on valence and symbolic issues. After years of reciprocal demonization, the grand coalition formed of the Social Democrats (PSD) and the National Liberals (PNL) together with the ethnic Hungarian party (UDMR) seems to confirm this conventional wisdom. Their cartelization in a grand coalition also makes them a perfect target for the anti-establishment rhetoric of the new parties: the liberal anticorruption party USRPLUS and the radical right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), which now share the opposition benches.

A closer look at the ideological positions of the old and new parties can help us better understand the realignment Romanian politics is already experiencing and its likely consequences should the new parties continue their growth and replace the old mainstream right (PNL). PNL has been in government without interruption since November 2019 but has seen its electoral support plummet to almost half of what it was in Spring 2020. The decision to join forces with the Social Democrats could accelerate this decline. The analysis is based on the recent survey of candidates participating in the 2020 parliamentary elections which we have conducted as part of the project. In total 321 candidates responded, including 85 Members of Parliament (a response rate of 21.3%).

The survey draws on the core questionnaire of Module III of The Comparative Candidate Survey (CCS).We collected information on candidate selection, the candidates’ political career, the campaign strategies and actions they undertook, as well as information relating to their values and attitudes related to representation and public policies.

The Keynesian turn that the pandemic seems to have fostered globally is also reflected in the attitudes of Romanian politicians towards state intervention in the economy. On average, the candidates of PSD, UDMR and AUR reject the need to abstain from such intervention while PNL and USR candidates are rather neutral. As the figure below shows there is a strong consensus among the candidates of the five parties that the state should allocate more funds to education and healthcare, and there is also little difference with respect to increased welfare provisions for the elderly and families with children. These stated preferences contrast significantly with budgetary allocations, both education and the healthcare sector being chronically underfinanced [OA brief on Ro healthcare].

 

Figure 1: Support for increased budgetary spending and a universal basic income

When it comes to self-identification, PSD remains unchallenged on the left of the political spectrum. Its candidates are indeed supportive of an increased welfare state, redistribution measures including for those who the right-wing parties see as the ‘undeserving poor’ and even of a universal basic income. Nevertheless, most of them display socially conservative values, especially with respect to gay marriage, attitudes towards immigrant assimilation and affirmative action for women.

Despite the ‘Liberal’ in their name, PNL candidates espouse rather ambivalent positions on gay rights, immigration, and the need for increased surveillance to fight terrorism. On economic issues their positions are not significantly different from those of USRPLUS, emphasizing sound fiscal policies and balanced budgets.

 

What distinguishes the new parties?

Since January 2021 AUR has constantly polled above 10%, and from last autumn it has surpassed USR as the third largest party in the preferences of Romanians. The party’s vocal opposition to pandemic restrictions, which included the organization of protests in several cities, astute usage of social media, and the appeal of its anti-establishment rhetoric mixed with nationalist tropes and antivaxxer propaganda means AUR is well positioned to continue to grow. While the sympathies of several of its leading members for Romania’s interwar fascist movement are clear, less is known about the party’s positions on the economy and social policies.

When asked to place their own views and their party on the traditional left-right scale, AUR candidates position themselves and their party as strongly rightist. On questions related to social values, they are indeed extremely conservative, especially on gay rights, the assimilation of immigrants and the salience of traditional values. Nevertheless, they also declare their support for income redistribution and welfare measures, such as indexing the minimum wage with the cost of living, the extension of medical services included in the state healthcare insurance, and governmental measures to reduce income inequality and provide a stable network of social security. This combination of ideological positions is reminiscent of the Polish Law and Justice Party, with which AUR also shares economic nationalism principles. Recently, AUR’s president, George Simion, has expressed his admiration for the ‘Polish model’ and the wish to replicate it in Romania.

USRPLUS is the sole Romanian party promoting a more liberal agenda on social values, but even their politicians embrace only certain progressive elements. Thus, USRPLUS candidates are the only ones to endorse civil partnerships and to oppose a ban on same-sex marriage, and they are less likely to agree that immigrants should be obliged to adapt to Romanian customs. Nevertheless, they are as much in favor of harsher sentences for those who break the law as are the candidates of all the other parties. This latter element is unsurprising given the party’s fierce anti-corruption discourse which has sometimes been labeled ‘penal populism’.

 

Figure 2: Different shades of social conservatism

 

USRPLUS was still an electoral alliance during the 2020 parliamentary elections and their candidates’ individual party affiliation was recorded by the electoral authority. Drawing on this information, statistical analysis revealed that the PLUS candidates were somewhat more centrist than those the USR nominated (6.1 vs. 7.3 on an 11-point left-right scale). When PLUS was launched, some hoped its emphasis on social policies would make it appealing for some of PSD’s voters or disaffected leftist citizens, but this has not yet happened.

The election of Dacian Cioloș, the founder of PLUS, as president of the merged party in October has not so far brought a revival in USRPLUS’ popularity. Cioloș has pledged to implement internal organisational reforms to strengthen the party, but these remain uncertain given that the executive body of the party is still dominated by the former leadership.

European integration – still not politicized

While no Romanian party is openly Eurosceptic and virtually all survey respondents see Romania’s EU membership as positive, the UDMR and AUR candidates are ambivalent about the deepening of European integration and declare themselves rather dissatisfied about how democracy functions in the EU. For UDMR this is a remarkable change compared to previous candidate surveys conducted in 2013 and 2017 and it reflects the ever-closer alignment with Viktor Orban’s Fidesz positions.